Book Review: Black Arts – Andrew Prentice (Fiction)

While a reasonably enjoyable book that combines a vivid historic setting with magic and demons in a somewhat novel manner, the story becomes pretty predictable, with some turns obvious long before they occur, while some mysteries are never resolved.

This definitely reminded me of Sixty-One Nails, which also has a fantasy London setting (if a more modern one), combined with a bit of Oliver Twist.

Credibility also suffers, as magic is conveniently used as a plot device to allow miraculous escapes and plot turns, without really thinking through the implications. There’s also no real empathy created with the characters, and no real exploration of the motives, sub-plots or ramifications of discoveries. The characters are naive and one-dimensional.

Despite this, it was an entertaining story – pulp and predictable, but quick-paced and still potentially worth a quick read, just don’t expect anything too original.

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Review: Modern Analysis of Customer Surveys: with Applications using R (Statistics in Practice)

Modern Analysis of Customer Surveys: with Applications Using R (Statistics in Practice)

This book is clearly academic in style. It doesn’t sugar-coat the mathematical formulae, and introduces a wide range of terms and names for techniques throughout the text, and includes a lot of references at the end of each chapter. The discussion goes into significant detail about the relevant techniques and standards involved in setting up, running and analysing customer satisfaction surveys.

As someone who is currently working in a market research company, a number of the terms were familiar, and it was interesting to see some discussion of the merits and drawbacks of the different types of survey, plus discussion of the ways in which the surveys should be structured, what biases should be considered and how they can be addressed.

There at times seems to be a tendency to refer to other texts for details on a technique, which is not helpful if you’re wanting the book to be your sole reference, but often there is also a reference to a later chapter for further coverage.

The biggest problem I have with the book is that the title indicates the analysis is in R, when there are only a few places where there is any R code at all, with most of it in an ‘Introduction to R’ appendix, which is rather too short to give more than a basic idea about using R.

As a result, if you want to gain a solid foundation in the theoretical principles for planning, running and analysing customer satisfaction surveys which will provide useful, statistically sound data, then this is a reasonable book to consider. The introduction to R may help to start running the analysis of this data, but you’ll almost certainly need to look at other texts if you want to properly learn how to perform the analysis in R.

If your maths is not strong, then there’s no corresponding introduction to statistics, so the mathematical formulae will probably be formidable, although in all likelihood if your maths is not as strong you’ll be looking for an existing implementation of the formula as a function in your chosen language (R presumably). It would have been useful if the usage of the various analysis techniques was demonstrated in R. I’ve listed significant negatives, but still gave the book 4 stars. Why? Well, despite the limited coverage of R, this is a book that covers a significant amount of statistical theory in detail, covering everything from plannin and sample selection through survey planning to analysis using a range of techniques, outlining the pros and cons of different methods and standards such as SERVQUAL and ISO standards along the way. As a largely theoretical (rather than practical) text it is excellent, and as such deserves a good rating. Just don’t buy it if (like me) you’re mainly interested in learning R.

As a theoretical text, it doesn’t so much outline a general process to follow as discusses the range of techniques involved in the successful planing, execution and analysis of surveys in general. As a result, while nominally about Customer Surveys, this is mainly only apparent in the choice of (fictional) sample being examined to demonstrate the concepts. The sources of bias, statistical techniques and so on are otherwise introduced in a largely abstract manner, and detailed in sufficient detail that they could be easily applied to most other kinds of survey, and additionally to other kinds of data analysis (for example a number of the theoretical techniques oulined would be useful for artificial intelligence). If you want to run any kind of survey, then this will probably be a useful starting point for understanding the domain to a sufficient level to create sound results.

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Changing employer

There’s a situation which is amongst the most stressful in our lives, but mixes the positive and the negative in varying proportions, and which some people face rarely in their lives and others more often. This is changing jobs, whether through personal choice or through finding yourself out of work. Obviously the former situation seems more beneficial, but there are still many of the same stresses, plus that feeling that you might be leaving colleagues that you like personally with greater difficulties.

Through joining a development team that’s been eliminated just over a year later, I’ve found myself in the situation of having to change employer again after a relatively short period. While my job wasn’t made redundant, others were and my role was eroded and had no future. Did this get caused by a worsening economic environment? No, the company grew around 30% in the year. The head of IT didn’t succeed on a project and control was handed over to the US VP of Development, triggering my team to be dismantled. The company may benefit from being fast-moving and willing to make sweeping changes, but sometimes the staff are left counting the cost as their roles are eroded or eliminated and their plans are wrecked by the changes.

So, am I bitter about the changes? Fortunately, no. It happens at a time when the developer job market is as favourable as it’s been in years. While it’s required the stress of interviews and planning to make new friends amongst new colleagues, the friends of mine who have been made redundant look likely to be back in work for more pay and in pocket from the redundancy payment, while I’ll miss out on a redundancy but equally will be making a forwards step in my career. My main sadness is that I’d hoped to be gaining more senior aspects with my current employer, and they’ve only now acknowledged that I might have fared better as a manager and my system design instincts were better, but that the wrong decision was made. Adaptability is a useful skill for an employee as well as a company, so I’m sure my next steps will be positive.

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Decreasing relevance

One of the interesting things that I’ve been noticing more recently is that search engine results, despite getting better at returning information that does actually pertain to the subject and avoid spam, do still seem to have another increasing problem in making the results useful – that of old data.

When looking up information about various things (mostly technical) recently, I’ve had a problem finding current information because it’s lost amongst older information. For example, looking for comparisons between graphics cards, I’ve ending up looking at a number of obsolete comparisons before finding a suitably current one. Similarly looking for blogging software or software libraries I’ve been finding more obsolete posts and abandoned projects. It’s even more of a problem for reviews on products, because it gets very hard to find reviews to allow easily comparing a budget current device with an ageing formerly higher-end one, as expectations move on.

In part this may even be justifiable in terms of standard methods for search engine ranking, because the longer an article has been around the more likely it is to have been referenced and commented on. However, this does seem to be an increasing problem and one which will need to be addressed in rankings to perhaps work out better ways to rank according to how ‘fresh’ the content is.

5 years ago there was a fraction of the content online that there is now, but more importantly there weren’t as many articles which had been online for a few years which were now entirely obsolete. Now it’s getting much easier to look through results and find a lot of articles that are at 2-3 years old, and in the first page of results you may well even have 5 year old results, depending on whether it’s something new (obviously if you’re searching for results on the Ainol Novo7 or something similarly recently launched, then this won’t apply).

Blogging is a big part of this as many bloggers have now been active for much longer, so when you look at a bit of information about a product, then you may well turn up a lot of information from when it was launched or a new product was launched, because there was a lot of hype about the product then. This can then completely swamp the later, more comprehensive evaluation, when the status quo has moved on and any issues have been found.

It will be interesting to see how Google and Microsoft address this – especially when they already have challenges just indexing all the current content and therefore just including current news and articles.

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Book Review: Twitter for Good – Change the World One Tweet At A Time

Twitter for Good – Change the World One Tweet At A Time, by Claire Diaz-Ortiz, is a business book about Twitter written by one of its staff. This isn’t just a book written by an enthusiastic Twitter fan, it’s a book written by the Head of Corporate Social Innovation and Philanthropy at Twitter. It’s therefore authoritative advice on how to organise a Twitter strategy for the benefit of a charity or similar organisation.

While most of us aren’t doing fundraising, most of the T.W.E.E.T. strategy is appropriate for any organisation seeking to find its voice on Twitter. This then turns the book into some useful business advice, while covering the philanthropic efforts of Twitter (it’s always reassuring to know that there are large companies trying to spread a benevolent message and do some good as well as just build revenue). You end up learning about a number of (US-based) charities benefiting from the communication opportunities provided by Twitter, while they outline case studies that illustrate a range of different strategies.

If your company doesn’t already make use of Twitter, if you don’t have a good idea of how to make the most of hash tags, or if you’re just interested in getting a better idea on how to put together a more solid strategy with reference to how others have done it, then this should be a useful read. As such, despite being less than 200 pages of content, there’s a lot packed in, and not just because the text is sometimes relatively small. While it does sometimes seem like it is trying very hard to sell an idea of how benevolent Twitter is as a company, on the whole it was a very informative and interesting read, and an easy book to recommend.

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Technology for change and progress

One of the driving factors for me in my work is seeing the change and potential for change in technology in general, both in the places that I work and in the world at large.

Most companies, even technically capable ones are blinkered in their adoption of technology. They may understand providing a website, and even an intranet, but then miss the potential to use various tools to create employee identification with the company, to engage in new ways with existing customers, and to raise their profile to increase their business. They also miss many areas where a product could make use of various existing technologies to create something novel.

A part of the is conventional business culture which seeks to control things from above, and which naturally tends to resist letting go of this control to create a more personal voice, and to embrace technologies and techniques which are not already familiar. Another major reason is that companies generally hire looking for skills that match with their existing requirements – this doesn’t necessarily introduce the broader horizons and fresh thinking which allows those other avenues to be pursued.

Some companies obviously do understand. Google’s 20% time would be a particular example, where staff are actively encouraged to spend some time on their pet ideas, and their Labs projects show a range of different ideas being explored. Others, like Apple, have also made a huge success of taking not necessarily new ideas, but external ideas and making something which raises the bar. Similarly, Intel and others have their R&D departments, always pushing for a way to advance the status quo. It’s just that a great many don’t. Wherever I’m working, I try to bring new ideas for avenues where technology and strategy could be applied in ways that haven’t already been considered – a mix of my personal interests and ideas drawn from the different approaches taken by previous employers.

On a wider level, my interest is in the situation that will be provided to my children. In addition to driving me towards working hard to provide as well as I can for them, it adds a particular focus to my existing interest in where technology has shaped and will shape the world. Looking at growing up with a BBC Micro from the age of 4, and taking my first steps in programming at a later stage with BBC Basic, computers have advanced so far and penetrated so much of everyday life that it’s a very situation for a child now. My youngest daughter is taking her first steps in programming at the age of 5, and has so much more exposure to computers already – she plays games, as I did at that stage, but also has educational software, an edutainment console, and likes drawing and colouring on the computer, too.

The internet-connected world that we live in now was largely a Sci-Fi dream in the early 80′s, bringing immediate news availability and video calls to the grandparents to my kids. It’s only a matter of time before they start engaging with their peers on social networking sites of some description, and they’ll be able to look back at a childhood where most of the events that they’ve attended to will have a photographic record at least.

We’ve now reached a point where high quality video training on a wide range of subjects is freely available, even up to degree level teaching, from Khan Academy, Stanford online courses, MIT resources, and more. If someone wants to learn about pretty much any academic subject, they can find materials for their level. While there is still a need for charities providing books to impoverished areas where education remains scarce, initiatives like Negroponte’s One Laptop Per Child are perhaps more important as a window to a connected world, a resource for all educational needs, and a communication tool, all in one. What we need to see are efforts to join up the dots, connect resources like Wikiversity with charitable efforts to examine and authenticate knowledge acquired from this increasing free resource, to provide global, free academic accreditation so that with a net connection anyone can gain creditable academic qualification without worrying about debt.

Obviously education won’t solve all of the world’s problems. Ubiquitous clean, cheap energy remains probably the goal, since this could power desalination for clean water, underground lighting for multi-level farming, and help resolve transportation and communication challenges. For that reason I’m interested in hearing anything about Fusion reactor research, and wonder whether despite (or perhaps because of) the Fukushima reactor problems, Thorium-based Molten Salt Reactors should also be investigated. However, aside from working briefly with a former nuclear reactor technician, all I’ve learned about that has been relatively elementary coverage from the likes of New Scientists, Wikipedia, etc. As it stands it’s an interesting subject, but I’ll keep my focus more on programming and computer-related technology.

The real question is what current technologies will do the most to shape the future? Obviously video calling is fairly widely available (using Skype, FaceTime, 3G video calling, etc), but not nearly as widely used. I hope to see video communication becoming more commonplace, perhaps with some always-on connections where more places are set up with video and screens to permanently connect 2 locations – for bringing families, communities and offices together.

The tranformation of media production is also underway and can be expected to continue. You can already self-publish ebooks, albums, videos and software, but there is still further to go in the ‘democratisation of publication’. We’ll presumably see more instances where an individual appears out of nowhere, produces something that ‘goes viral’, and creates their own niche and market without any big company support, and technology is a part of that – consumer recording technology now reaching a level where publication-ready material can be produced on a very limited budget.

I’d also like to see computers used more extensively in schools. At the moment too many schools have virtually no web presence, an externally provided educational resource, and set a really bad example for ICT use in general. Relative to NHS IT efforts, it would be very simple to provide some standardised services to all schools to allow them to enter basic contact information, photos, key staff information, term times, announcements and so on. It would rapidly save money, too, as currently all of these announcements are printed en masse and handed out to all the kids. Similarly, efforts could and should be made to make as much of the reference materials used in schools available in a shared resource.

I’d like to see schools start to support learning about a wider range of subjects, too – some compulsory (such as key knowledge about rights and obligations in everyday life), and some supporting voluntary learning. Part of the reason for this is that while in the past covering the basics (Reading, Writing, Arithmetic) and a trade could be sufficient, in modern life we are offered contracts barely understood by most for mobile phones, insurance, employment, agreeing to participate in leisure activities, gym memberships, etc. We have a far greater need to understand legal matters than in the past. We also have areas that are worse covered than in the past, such as cooking for yourself, or knowing enough to manage your own finances. Hopefully at some point education will catch up to genuinely prepare our children for the modern world.

The world the kids are growing up in is an exciting time, and so much is available to them which would have astounded me as a child. I hope to be able to guide them into the communications side safely and with confidence, and hope that their first few decades see as much positive transformation as mine has. And here’s hoping that they see a similar boom period just as my parents ultimately benefitted from a sustained period of unbroken growth, rather than facing problems affording adequate housing as so many of my generation are – technology may help with this, too, if work practices change to decentralise and reduce the pressure on housing in city locations, or automated transport simplifies minimises the drudgery of commuting for many.

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Book Review: Appillionaires: Secrets from Developers Who Struck It Rich on the App Store

An obvious read for someone who plays some mobile games and has written a couple of in-house test apps, I was hoping to get some real advice on how successful developers got their idea into the public consciousness and made their fortunes. And on this I was disappointed.

The book basically looks at a few examples of major iOS successes, with a look into the team behind them. There’s some interesting details showing that the overnight successes that many of these apps are portrayed as are not really anything of the sort – generally there’s been failed apps preceeding the success, and some effort required to get the app noticed.

There’s also some discussion of the tendency towards the larger development companies like EA purchasing successful Indie development companies, and about the average revenue per app (well under $1000, not a lot when a few apps have made millions). However, there’s precious little in the way of secrets of success. The main advice is to make sure that a game has ‘heart and soul’, and to get lucky, and to have created an app soon after the launch of the AppStore. Some real secrets there…

It’ll take you a few hours to read this, and you’ll probably come away with the impression that it’s easier to lose money in apps than turn a profit, but given the success rate of companies as a whole there’s nothing new there. But you’ll be none the wiser as to how to genuinely create your own app, so I have to conclude that while it was an interesting, if short, read, the title was seriously overstating the content and cannot recommend the book.

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Statements of Accomplishment

Introduction to Artificial Intelligence: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5tF2Dfua6ikNDUxOTZiODQtMzVjOC00ZWNkLThkY2YtYjkwN2I0Mjk0YmU2

Introduction to Machine Learning: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5tF2Dfua6ikZGU5Yzc3NTItMjdiZS00ZTBhLWJiMjctYjQ2MDYyYTk1MGMw

I’ve now got statements of accomplishment for the Introduction to AI and Introduction to Machine Learning classes I did online with Stanford University. They were both very informative and interesting, so I’d recommend Stanford’s future online classes to anyone. Personally, I’m planning to do more of their courses – possibly a few starting this month. Probabilistic Graphical Models is related to the above 2, so I’m planning to do that one at least – it’s at http://www.pgm-class.org/ and at the bottom of the page there are links to others (Technology Entrepreneurship, Information Theory, Cryptography, etc).

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My latest reading : Thinking, fast and slow, by Daniel Kahneman

I’ve read a number of books on psychology, business theory, economics and so on, although probably focussing more on concepts for business relationships and leadership than anything else. Thinking, fast and slow is a book primarily about understanding ourselves, how we make decisions and how errors creep in either through answering the wrong question or through allowing things like the language used to affect our judgement, and how we’re simply not as rational as we like to think we are.

Although the book is a look at our own psychology, the examples look repeatedly at how our decisions in economic situations are affected by these biases. The author is a Nobel laureate, and the depth of his experience really does shine through in the book as he highlights seemingly endless examples of studies and papers that illustrate the case. The book remains readable, as he manages to balance this evidence-based justification with a story-telling expertise that turns the expositions into an ongoing narrative. He is not too proud to admit his failures, either, and in particular admits to one key mistake where he ignored all his studies and experience to maintain a hopelessly optimistic expectation for a large project he worked on, and this also helps avoid the self-superior tone than many similar books can have.

The coverage of utility theory, prospect theory and other elements of behavioural economics and psychology means that the book offers insights into our own mistakes, our careers, how we should look at business prospects, and how people can view something as more likely than something which even a minute’s consideration would show as less likely than an alternative. Not all of the examples were new – I’ve seen other books that look at risk aversion bias and framing effects when choosing between a smaller number of certain deaths and a large number of possible ones, but this has a wide range of examples that applies similar principles to economic decisions and other problem domains, and also takes it further to look at how different perspectives on a problem (such as remembered trauma vs. actual duration and level of suffering) can create very different answers on the optimal approach to public health. The concepts are applicable across a broad range of human experience, and I would challenge anyone not to find a lot of areas of their own lives and experience where the concepts can be applied.

The only criticisms I would raise are that some of the concepts do seem to be repeated a bit too much, and some of the examples raised too often, and the assumptions on personal wealth seem to assume the average person can afford to lose more than would normally be the case, but the latter doesn’t render the decisions inaccurate, but just means that some of the elevated risk aversion highlighted as applicable in those circumstances would be more common. It is a very thought-provoking book, though, and I’m sure the insights are applicable to understanding human behaviour across a wide range of problem domains, so it is highly recommended – 5 stars.

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AI and Machine Learning courses complete, xmas preparations underway

I was pleased to get my letter of completion from the Introduction to Artificial Intelligence course stating that I got 90.2% – given that was higher than my score on most of the tests, I think I must have got 100% on the final test :) . Looks like I learned something from it after all. I know I completed the Machine Learning course, because you know your marks as you go along and there’s no final exam, but I don’t have a letter of completion yet.

Following on from these I’m inclined to take some of the other online courses Stanford is doing in the new year – Probabilistic Graphical Modelling, Tech Entrepreneurship, Human-Computer Interaction, etc. That said, I may need to update the BCS project report, and I want to get full Microsoft MCPD certification next year. So I’ve no intention to stop the process of making my .NET development knowledge more complete while also broadening my knowledge to cover other areas of development more fully. The Artificial Intelligence course was interesting because there was no programming involved there, it was more about the general algorithms in logical and mathematical terms, with the accompanying exploration of the statistics and probability calculations. The Machine Learning one delved into programming in GNU Octave and doing matrix calculations and actual implementation, so my desire to see some of the principles applied was also covered.

Having completed the courses and started my xmas vacation, I’ve promptly been called on repeatedly by work to look into no less than 3 projects I’ve been involved with. So it’s hardly been peaceful. However, I think I’ve balanced the demands of work and family reasonably successfully, trying to point colleagues in the right direction to get things going again while still getting xmas shopping, tidying and so on done. It doesn’t help that the other senior developer has just quit, another is on leave, and there’s still pressure to launch.

The family are well – the kids are running riot over the holidays, but getting increasingly excited as the 25th approaches.If I could chanell their unlimited energies into tidying and domesticity, then we’d be sorted, but hopefully we’re a bit more prepared than we have been some recent years – like being laid up ill until xmas eve and then staying up really late to get presents wrapped. Sian liked her birthday present – an electric guitar – and I think Donna’s liked learning to play a few simple bits, too ;)

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